| Broadband nearing saturation - report |
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| Written by NetGuide Contributor | |||||
| Thursday, 20 November 2008 | |||||
 The global market for broadband connections has slowed significantly this year, according to new research from British analyst Point Topic (point-topic.com).
“As the total number of broadband lines in the world passes 400 million Point Topic forecasts that the total in the 40 biggest broadband countries in the world will grow from 393 million by the end of 2008 to 635 million by 2013,” a posting on the company’s Web site says. “Broadband in the rest of the world will grow from 16 million to 48 million lines in the same period, so the world will add 273 million lines to reach 683 million in total. “This represents a 10.8% per year compound growth rate, well down from 27.7% per year in the 2004 to 2008 period, but still substantial. One major reason for the slowdown in growth is that most of the richer countries are approaching saturation with broadband; new customers are becoming harder to find and sign up. At the same time poorer countries such as China and India have gone through the initial phase of rapid growth and are now growing steadily rather than exponentially. “Looking five years ahead, China is forecast to be well in front as the biggest broadband country, with 153 million broadband lines against 117 million in the USA. In fact China is expected to be already ahead of the USA by the end of 2008.” The current global economic recession is expected to affect broadband uptake more in industrialised than emerging economies, and these effects are expected to be felt throughout 2009. The other factor limiting broadband growth is the number of households and business premises able to receive it. Statistics show that countries with more occupants per household have lower broadband uptake, ie: more people sharing a house equals lower income and broadband Internet is more likely therefore to be considered a luxury. Point Topic’s methodology for making these forecasts is based on tracking the percentage of premises of all kinds – both homes and workplaces - which have a broadband line.
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